Global macro command centre

cycle 09-16 22:00Z · sessions FX sydney CME CRYPTORun cycle locked · unlock with passcode

Global regime

DISINFLATIONARYCRYPTO DELEVERAGING

regime-rules-1.0.0 · pseudo-probabilities, uncalibrated

riskfading

risk on 13

50h in state · switch 13%/24h

usdfading

usd weakening 30

137h in state · switch 10%/24h

volatilityfading

volatility compression 8

51h in state · switch 21%/24h

liquidity · proxy

neutral 51

151h in state · switch 8%/24h

inflation

disinflationary 83

1h in state · switch 10%/24h

growth

neutral 55

208h in state · switch 5%/24h

commodity

normal 86

2668h in state · switch 1%/24h

crypto

crypto deleveraging 80

310h in state · switch 9%/24h

USD

94.27

+1.18% 24h

EUR

1.18440

−1.00% 24h

JPY

166.537

+2.45% 24h

GOLD

1,993.65

−4.20% 24h

OIL

165.78

−5.29% 24h

BTC

73,515.9

−10.31% 24h

RISK

risk on

Equity 5,970.74

VOLATILITY

volatility compression

Vol index 31.33 +11.8

LIQUIDITY

neutral

3 thin · 0 closed

Top opportunitieslatest cycle · 1 hypothesesall →

Instrument	Dir	Strategy	Confidence	R:R	Exp R	Event	Decision	Why not / why
XAUUSD	SHORT	cmd.macro_event	52	2.00	+0.15	0.10	rejected	quote_fresh; confidence_minimum; consecutive_loss_pause

Paper book09-16 22:00Zdetail →

Equity$99,061realized −$859

Daily P&L00.00%

Drawdown1.02%peak $100,086

Open risk0.00%$0 to stops

Gross / net: $0 / $0
Leverage: 0.00x
USD factor exposure: $0 (0.0%)
Forecast volatility: —

Open positions0

Flat.

Exposurecurrency legs · USD beta clusters

No exposure.

Risk utilisationlimits →

Daily loss0.00 / 2.0

Drawdown1.02 / 10.0

Gross exposure0.00 / 500.0

Leverage0.00 / 5.0x

USD factor0.00 / 250.0

Largest currency0.00 / 300.0

Correlated cluster risk0.00 / 1.5

Crypto exposure0.00 / 50.0

Forecast volatility0.00 / 20.0

Open positions0 / 8

Event calendarnext 48h · MOCK schedule

Time	Event	Impact	Cons.	Actual
09-17 01:30Z in 2h 42m	AUD AU EMPLOYMENT	HIGH	-21.18	pending
09-17 07:30Z in 8h 42m	CHF SNB	MEDIUM	1.50	pending
09-18 03:00Z in 1.2d	JPY BOJ	HIGH	-0.35	pending

Event risk by instrumentas of cycle 22:00Z

Instrument	Score	Driving event	Exp. vol
AUD/USD	0.37	AU EMPLOYMENT in 3h 29m	2.8× prior
EUR/USD	0.13	FED PRESS CONF 3h 31m ago	2.8× prior
GBP/USD	0.13	FED PRESS CONF 3h 31m ago	2.8× prior
USD/JPY	0.13	FED PRESS CONF 3h 31m ago	2.8× prior
XAUUSD	0.10	FED PRESS CONF 3h 31m ago	2.8× prior
BTCUSD	0.07	FED PRESS CONF 3h 31m ago	2.8× prior
ETHUSD	0.07	FED PRESS CONF 3h 31m ago	2.8× prior
WTI	0.04	FED PRESS CONF 3h 31m ago	2.8× prior

Relationships changing120h vs 720h

Pair	State	Short	Long	Lead/lag
EURUSD/GBPUSD	recovering	0.67	0.65	—
EURUSD/XAUUSD	strengthening	0.65	0.40	—
XAUUSD/US10Y	strengthening	0.54	0.07	—
WTI/COPPER	recovering	0.50	0.46	—
WTI/XAUUSD	strengthening	0.64	0.27	—