Global state

Delta's current model of the markets: eight component regimes from the rules regime model, each with the evidence it used, and a macro regime label derived from those components by configured rules. Model confidence and switch rates are uncalibrated scores, not probabilities.

Macro regimederived · rule disinflationaryMOCK

DISINFLATIONARY

model conf 0.84 uncal. · lowest model confidence among the component states the rule matched

Supporting

▲inflation regime0.84INFLATION is disinflationary

Contradicting

No contradicting component states.

as of 09-16 23:00Z · regime-rules-1.0.0+ba09c5ab · global_state-1.0.0+69b7ee0b

Last 7 days167 states · one per regime barwhat changed →

MACRO

DISINFLATIONARYMIXED / TRANSITIONALGOLDILOCKS

RISK

USD

VOLATILITY

LIQUIDITY

INFLATION

GROWTH

COMMODITY

CRYPTO

colour = state direction (green positive, red negative, grey neutral) · opacity = model confidence · from 09-10 01:00Z to 09-16 23:00Z

RISKrisk axis changed neutral

state: neutral
previous state: risk on
in state since: 09-16 23:00Z · 0h
model confidence: 0.52 uncal.
historical switch rate (24h): 14% uncal. empirical: 17 label changes in 2935 bars (Beta(1,1) prior)
axis score: -0.26

neutral0.52

risk off0.35

risk on0.13

label scores · uncalibrated, not probabilities

Supporting evidence

▲spx mom 480+0.19spx_mom_480 contributes +0.19: small, consistent with neutral
▲vix z 500−0.32vix_z_500 contributes -0.32: small, consistent with neutral
▲audjpy mom 480+0.16audjpy_mom_480 contributes +0.16: small, consistent with neutral
▲btc mom 480−0.28btc_mom_480 contributes -0.28: small, consistent with neutral
▲leading label0.52neutral is the leading label (score 0.52)

Contradicting evidence

No contradicting evidence above the reporting threshold.

USDusd axis usd weakening

state: usd weakening
previous state: neutral
in state since: 09-11 04:00Z · 139h
model confidence: 0.28 uncal.
historical switch rate (24h): 10% uncal. empirical: 12 label changes in 2935 bars (Beta(1,1) prior)
axis score: -0.13

neutral0.54

usd weakening0.28

usd strengthening0.17

label scores · uncalibrated, not probabilities

Supporting evidence

▲usd mom 480−0.26usd_mom_480 contributes -0.26 (weight +0.6) toward usd weakening
▲persistence139held for 139 bars

Contradicting evidence

▼usd mom 120+0.13usd_mom_120 contributes +0.13 (weight +0.4) toward usd strengthening
▼leading label0.54leading label is neutral (score 0.54); usd weakening is held by hysteresis
▼fading0.28model confidence 0.28 below the hysteresis exit level 0.35; the label is fading

VOLATILITYvolatility axis volatility compression

state: volatility compression
previous state: normal
in state since: 09-14 18:00Z · 53h
model confidence: 0.09 uncal.
historical switch rate (24h): 21% uncal. empirical: 28 label changes in 2935 bars (Beta(1,1) prior)
axis score: 0.45

volatility expansion0.47

normal0.45

volatility compression0.09

label scores · uncalibrated, not probabilities

Supporting evidence

▲xasset log rv ratio−0.11xasset_log_rv_ratio contributes -0.11 (weight +0.6) toward volatility compression

Contradicting evidence

▼vix chg 120+0.56vix_chg_120 contributes +0.56 (weight +0.4) toward volatility expansion
▼leading label0.47leading label is volatility expansion (score 0.47); volatility compression is held by hysteresis
▼fading0.09model confidence 0.09 below the hysteresis exit level 0.35; the label is fading

LIQUIDITYliquidity axis · proxy neutral

state: neutral
previous state: liquidity contraction
in state since: 09-10 14:00Z · 153h
model confidence: 0.53 uncal.
historical switch rate (24h): 8% uncal. empirical: 9 label changes in 2935 bars (Beta(1,1) prior)
axis score: -0.22

neutral0.53

liquidity contraction0.33

liquidity expansion0.14

label scores · uncalibrated, not probabilities

Supporting evidence

▲usd mom 480+0.18usd_mom_480 contributes +0.18: small, consistent with neutral
▲us2y chg 480+0.16us2y_chg_480 contributes +0.16: small, consistent with neutral
▲leading label0.53neutral is the leading label (score 0.53)
▲persistence153held for 153 bars

Contradicting evidence

▼btc mom 480−0.56btc_mom_480 contributes -0.56, pulling toward liquidity contraction

INFLATIONinflation axis disinflationary

state: disinflationary
previous state: neutral
in state since: 09-16 20:00Z · 3h
model confidence: 0.84 uncal.
historical switch rate (24h): 10% uncal. empirical: 12 label changes in 2935 bars (Beta(1,1) prior)
axis score: -1.50

disinflationary0.84

deflationary0.08

neutral0.07

inflationary0.01

label scores · uncalibrated, not probabilities

Supporting evidence

▲oil mom 480−0.54oil_mom_480 contributes -0.54 (weight +0.4) toward disinflationary
▲us10y chg 480−0.60us10y_chg_480 contributes -0.60 (weight +0.3) toward disinflationary
▲gold mom 480−0.36gold_mom_480 contributes -0.36 (weight +0.3) toward disinflationary
▲leading label0.84disinflationary is the leading label (score 0.84)

Contradicting evidence

No contradicting evidence above the reporting threshold.

GROWTHgrowth axis neutral

state: neutral
previous state: growth acceleration
in state since: 09-08 05:00Z · 210h
model confidence: 0.55 uncal.
historical switch rate (24h): 5% uncal. empirical: 5 label changes in 2935 bars (Beta(1,1) prior)
axis score: 0.12

neutral0.55

growth acceleration0.28

growth slowdown0.18

label scores · uncalibrated, not probabilities

Supporting evidence

▲copper gold mom 480+0.26copper_gold_mom_480 contributes +0.26: small, consistent with neutral
▲spx mom 480+0.16spx_mom_480 contributes +0.16: small, consistent with neutral
▲curve chg 480−0.30curve_chg_480 contributes -0.30: small, consistent with neutral
▲leading label0.55neutral is the leading label (score 0.55)
▲persistence210held for 210 bars

Contradicting evidence

No contradicting evidence above the reporting threshold.

COMMODITYcommodity axis normal

state: normal
previous state: —
in state since: 05-28 17:00Z · 2,670h
model confidence: 0.86 uncal.
historical switch rate (24h): 1% uncal. empirical: 0 label changes in 2935 bars (Beta(1,1) prior)
axis score: 1.79

normal0.86

commodity shock0.14

label scores · uncalibrated, not probabilities

Supporting evidence

▲oil ret z 1201.46oil_ret_z_120 |z| 1.46 well below shock threshold 2.5
▲gold ret z 1201.79gold_ret_z_120 |z| 1.79 well below shock threshold 2.5
▲leading label0.86normal is the leading label (score 0.86)
▲persistence2,670held for 2670 bars

Contradicting evidence

No contradicting evidence above the reporting threshold.

CRYPTOcrypto axis crypto deleveraging

state: crypto deleveraging
previous state: neutral
in state since: 09-03 23:00Z · 312h
model confidence: 0.80 uncal.
historical switch rate (24h): 9% uncal. empirical: 10 label changes in 2935 bars (Beta(1,1) prior)
axis score: -1.05

crypto deleveraging0.80

neutral0.18

crypto risk on0.02

label scores · uncalibrated, not probabilities

Supporting evidence

▲btc mom 480−0.93btc_mom_480 contributes -0.93 (weight +0.5) toward crypto deleveraging
▲eth btc mom 480−0.31eth_btc_mom_480 contributes -0.31 (weight +0.3) toward crypto deleveraging
▲leading label0.80crypto deleveraging is the leading label (score 0.80)
▲persistence312held for 312 bars

Contradicting evidence

▼btc rv ratio log+0.19btc_rv_ratio_log contributes +0.19 (weight -0.2) toward crypto risk on