What changed

Differences between consecutive global states: regime flips, CUSUM transition warnings, large moves in model confidence and changes in the derived macro regime; confirmed cross-asset relationship changes and correlation strength moves; every strategy signal with its decision; and event policy changes, one entry per event naming the instruments it restricted or released. Each change is stored once and never rewritten.

All Macro Risk USD Volatility Liquidity Inflation Growth Commodity Crypto Relationships Correlation Signals Event risk24h 72h 7d 30d

Changes8 in the last 7d · volatility regime

State bar	Subject	Change	Kind	Evidence	Mode
09-17 00:00Z prev 09-16 23:00Z	VOLATILITY	VOLATILITY: VOLATILITY COMPRESSION → VOLATILITY EXPANSION	state change	▲vix_chg_120 contributes +0.59 (weight +0.4) toward volatility expansion ▲volatility expansion is the leading label (score 0.49) ▼xasset_log_rv_ratio contributes -0.11 (weight +0.6) toward volatility compression	MOCK
09-16 19:00Z prev 09-16 18:00Z	VOLATILITY	VOLATILITY: model confidence in VOLATILITY COMPRESSION fell 0.38 → 0.08 (uncalibrated) (−0.30)	confidence shift	▼vix_chg_120 contributes +0.60 (weight +0.4) toward volatility expansion ▼leading label is volatility expansion (score 0.47); volatility compression is held by hysteresis ▼model confidence 0.08 below the hysteresis exit level 0.35; the label is fading	MOCK
09-16 18:00Z prev 09-16 17:00Z	VOLATILITY	VOLATILITY: model confidence in VOLATILITY COMPRESSION fell 0.65 → 0.38 (uncalibrated) (−0.27)	confidence shift	▼leading label is normal (score 0.50); volatility compression is held by hysteresis	MOCK
09-14 18:00Z prev 09-14 17:00Z	VOLATILITY	VOLATILITY: NORMAL → VOLATILITY COMPRESSION	state change	▲vix_chg_120 contributes -0.49 (weight +0.4) toward volatility compression ▲xasset_log_rv_ratio contributes -0.22 (weight +0.6) toward volatility compression ▲volatility compression is the leading label (score 0.63)	MOCK
09-12 09:00Z prev 09-12 08:00Z	VOLATILITY	VOLATILITY: VOLATILITY COMPRESSION → NORMAL	state change	▲xasset_log_rv_ratio contributes -0.04: small, consistent with normal ▲vix_chg_120 contributes -0.03: small, consistent with normal ▲normal is the leading label (score 0.55)	MOCK
09-11 08:00Z prev 09-11 07:00Z	VOLATILITY	VOLATILITY: model confidence in VOLATILITY COMPRESSION rose 0.52 → 0.89 (uncalibrated) (+0.37)	confidence shift	▲xasset_log_rv_ratio contributes -0.93 (weight +0.6) toward volatility compression ▲vix_chg_120 contributes -0.41 (weight +0.4) toward volatility compression ▲volatility compression is the leading label (score 0.89)	MOCK
09-11 05:00Z prev 09-11 04:00Z	VOLATILITY	VOLATILITY: VOLATILITY EXPANSION → VOLATILITY COMPRESSION	state change	▲vix_chg_120 contributes -0.37 (weight +0.4) toward volatility compression ▲xasset_log_rv_ratio contributes -0.21 (weight +0.6) toward volatility compression ▲volatility compression is the leading label (score 0.55)	MOCK
09-11 00:00Z prev 09-10 23:00Z	VOLATILITY	VOLATILITY: model confidence in VOLATILITY EXPANSION fell 0.58 → 0.03 (uncalibrated) (−0.55)	confidence shift	▼xasset_log_rv_ratio contributes -0.49 (weight +0.6) toward volatility compression ▼vix_chg_120 contributes -0.40 (weight +0.4) toward volatility compression ▼leading label is volatility compression (score 0.73); volatility expansion is held by hysteresis	MOCK