What changed

Differences between consecutive global states: regime flips, CUSUM transition warnings, large moves in model confidence and changes in the derived macro regime; confirmed cross-asset relationship changes and correlation strength moves; and every strategy signal with its decision. Each change is stored once and never rewritten. Event-risk changes are added in a later phase.

All Macro Risk USD Volatility Liquidity Inflation Growth Commodity Crypto Relationships Correlation Signals24h 72h 7d 30d

Changes4 in the last 72h · volatility regime

State bar	Subject	Change	Kind	Evidence	Mode
09-17 00:00Z prev 09-16 23:00Z	VOLATILITY	VOLATILITY: VOLATILITY COMPRESSION → VOLATILITY EXPANSION	state change	▲vix_chg_120 contributes +0.59 (weight +0.4) toward volatility expansion ▲volatility expansion is the leading label (score 0.49) ▼xasset_log_rv_ratio contributes -0.11 (weight +0.6) toward volatility compression	MOCK
09-16 19:00Z prev 09-16 18:00Z	VOLATILITY	VOLATILITY: model confidence in VOLATILITY COMPRESSION fell 0.38 → 0.08 (uncalibrated) (−0.30)	confidence shift	▼vix_chg_120 contributes +0.60 (weight +0.4) toward volatility expansion ▼leading label is volatility expansion (score 0.47); volatility compression is held by hysteresis ▼model confidence 0.08 below the hysteresis exit level 0.35; the label is fading	MOCK
09-16 18:00Z prev 09-16 17:00Z	VOLATILITY	VOLATILITY: model confidence in VOLATILITY COMPRESSION fell 0.65 → 0.38 (uncalibrated) (−0.27)	confidence shift	▼leading label is normal (score 0.50); volatility compression is held by hysteresis	MOCK
09-14 18:00Z prev 09-14 17:00Z	VOLATILITY	VOLATILITY: NORMAL → VOLATILITY COMPRESSION	state change	▲vix_chg_120 contributes -0.49 (weight +0.4) toward volatility compression ▲xasset_log_rv_ratio contributes -0.22 (weight +0.6) toward volatility compression ▲volatility compression is the leading label (score 0.63)	MOCK