Delta

← opportunities · hypothesis 16ad8023 · 09-16 19:00Z · MOCK data

WHY BTC/USD SHORT?SHORTrejectedcrypto.momentum4H-3DCRYPTO DELEVERAGINGMOCK

Lifecyclecandidate → qualified → approved → executed, or rejected / expired

No lifecycle transitions recorded: this opportunity was decided before lifecycle tracking began.

Thesisrules-explainer-1.0.0 · from recorded evidence

crypto.momentum SHORT BTC/USD: momentum signal, horizon 4H-3D
crypto deleveraging regime (0.83) helps a short BTCUSD (assumed sensitivity +1.0)
ETHUSD momentum -1.1 sd with correlation +0.73 confirms the trade
SPX momentum -1.6 sd with correlation +0.34 confirms the trade
momentum -1.60 sd crossed 1.5
RSI 25: not at an extreme
Against: usd weakening regime (0.46) hurts a short BTCUSD (assumed sensitivity -0.3)

DecisionREJECTED

rejected: event_policy; consecutive_loss_pause

tradeevent policyblocked vs clearcritical_event_only: FOMC (CRITICAL) in -60 min (strategy not event-driven)
portfolioconsecutive loss pause0 vs 4paused until 2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00

Supporting evidence5

▲macro-0.81crypto deleveraging regime (0.83) helps a short BTCUSD (assumed sensitivity +1.0)
▲cross asset-1.13ETHUSD momentum -1.1 sd with correlation +0.73 confirms the trade
▲cross asset-1.58SPX momentum -1.6 sd with correlation +0.34 confirms the trade
▲technical-1.60momentum -1.60 sd crossed 1.5
▲technical25RSI 25: not at an extreme

Contradicting evidence1

▼macro-0.37usd weakening regime (0.46) hurts a short BTCUSD (assumed sensitivity -0.3)

Invalidation conditionschecked every strategy bar

stop at 81444.5 (5.0 x ATR(14))
120-bar momentum turns positive
horizon exceeded: 72 bars held

Confirmationuncalibrated scores

cross asset	CONFIRMS	+0.68	2 ev.
macro	MIXED	+0.25	2 ev.
technical	CONFIRMS	+0.42	2 ev.

Event riskscore 0.80

next event: none in window
blocks entry: yes
size multiplier: 1.00×
confidence add: +0

critical_event_only: FOMC (CRITICAL) in -60 min (strategy not event-driven)

Liquidity

state at decision: high
score: +1.00

Risk layers0.26% at stop

eligibility	1 ✓	0 ✗
trade	9 ✓	1 ✗
portfolio	10 ✓	1 ✗
system	2 ✓	0 ✗

ConfidenceELEVATED · conf-1.0.0

Not a probability. Heuristic weighted score. Not a probability of profit. Calibrate on >=200 paper trades (reliability diagram) before treating as one.

signal agreement	0.12	0.0
macro confirmation	0.18	+2.2
regime alignment	0.12	+0.7
cross asset	0.12	+4.1
volatility	0.08	−0.8
liquidity	0.08	+4.0
event risk	0.10	−4.0
historical performance	0.12	−0.3
risk reward	0.08	+1.3

Trade plan

Entry zone: 72,639.2 – 73,477.8
Reference: 73,058.5
Stop: 81,444.5 · 5.0 ATR
Target 1: 56,286.6 · 2.0R
Reward / risk: 2.00
Expected horizon: 4H-3D · max 72 bars
Expected return: −0.04R
OOS win rate (uncal.): 44.0% · n=23

walk-forward out-of-sample (2026-09-16): n=23, shrunk mean R x 0.53, Beta(1,1) win rate

Size and portfolio impactrisk-1.0.0

Size0.000not approved

Risk0.26%$260 · notional $2,265

Portfolio impact

Not evaluated: the opportunity was rejected before the portfolio projection.

Every risk check

Layer	Check		Value	Limit	Detail
system	kill switch inactive	✓	inactive	inactive
system	trading mode valid	✓	paper	paper\|backtest\|live
eligibility	strategy stage eligible	✓	BACKTEST (sandbox)	PAPER\|SHADOW\|LIMITED_CAPITAL\|PRODUCTION	MOCK sandbox: strategy has not earned PAPER; simulated on synthetic data only
trade	market liquidity allows entry	✓	high	not closed/maintenance/rollover/reopen	core session: us_hours
trade	quote fresh	✓	0	15	minutes since last quote
trade	spread sane	✓	0.99	2.5	spread / typical spread
trade	event policy	✗	blocked	clear	critical_event_only: FOMC (CRITICAL) in -60 min (strategy not event-driven)
trade	confidence minimum	✓	57.1	55	uncalibrated score; event policy adds 0
trade	risk reward minimum	✓	2	1.5
trade	stop distance sane	✓	5	0.5	stop distance in ATRs
trade	no conflicting position	✓	0 open, 0 pending	none
portfolio	consecutive loss pause	✗	0	4	paused until 2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00
portfolio	daily loss limit	✓	-0.0426	-2	% since trading-day start
portfolio	drawdown limit	✓	1.0244	10	% below peak equity
trade	size above minimum	✓	0.031	0.001	units (BTC)
trade	risk per trade	✓	0.2624	1	% of equity at the stop
portfolio	gross exposure	✓	2.29	500	% of equity
portfolio	leverage	✓	0.023	5
portfolio	currency exposure	✓	0	300	largest net currency exposure: -
portfolio	usd factor exposure	✓	4.4	250	beta-weighted USD-index-equivalent exposure, % of equity
portfolio	correlated cluster risk	✓	0.262	1.5	no correlated open positions
portfolio	crypto exposure	✓	2.29	50	% of equity
portfolio	portfolio volatility	✓	3.069	20	forecast annualised volatility
portfolio	max open positions	✓	1	8

Sizing tracenever sized from confidence alone

Step	Qty after	×	Detail
fixed_risk	0.059		0.5% of $99,061 = $495 over a stop of 8385.96 ($8,385.9597/unit)
confidence_adjusted	0.032	0.54	confidence 57 -> x0.54 (never above x1.00)
portfolio_risk_adjusted	0.032	1.00	correlated open risk $0 of $1,486 cluster budget -> x1.00
event_policy	0.032	1.00	event policy x1.00, liquidity x1.00
caps	0.031		rounded down to step 0.001

Execution and outcome

No orders: this hypothesis did not reach the broker.

Versionsevery trade is traceable

data mode: MOCK
timestamp: 2026-09-16T19:00:00Z
data source: mock
risk version: risk-1.0.0+e561f3f2
model version: regime-rules-1.0.0+ba09c5ab
feature version: fs-1.0.0+bbfe6af5
strategy version: crypto.momentum@1.0.0
execution version: exec-1.0.0+821dd562
confidence version: conf-1.0.0+18bcb659
event policy version: evpol-1.0.0+391f9e5d