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← opportunities · hypothesis 923fa91b · 09-12 00:00Z · MOCK data

WHY ETH/USD LONG?LONGrejectedcrypto.market_structure8H-4DCRYPTO DELEVERAGINGMOCK

Lifecyclecandidate → qualified → approved → executed, or rejected / expired

No lifecycle transitions recorded: this opportunity was decided before lifecycle tracking began.

Thesisrules-explainer-1.0.0 · from recorded evidence

crypto.market_structure LONG ETH/USD: structure signal, horizon 8H-4D
usd weakening regime (0.39) helps a long ETHUSD (assumed sensitivity -0.3)
higher highs and higher lows
close broke the last confirmed swing high
Against: crypto deleveraging regime (0.80) hurts a long ETHUSD (assumed sensitivity +1.0)

DecisionREJECTED

rejected: confidence_minimum

tradeconfidence minimum52 vs 55uncalibrated score; event policy adds 0

Supporting evidence3

▲macro-0.28usd weakening regime (0.39) helps a long ETHUSD (assumed sensitivity -0.3)
▲technical1.00higher highs and higher lows
▲technical2,219close broke the last confirmed swing high

Contradicting evidence1

▼macro-0.78crypto deleveraging regime (0.80) hurts a long ETHUSD (assumed sensitivity +1.0)

Invalidation conditionschecked every strategy bar

stop at 1996.59 (5.3 x ATR(14))
swing structure turns bearish (lower highs and lows)
horizon exceeded: 96 bars held

Confirmationuncalibrated scores

cross asset	MIXED	−0.12	0 ev.
macro	MIXED	−0.18	2 ev.
technical	CONFIRMS	+0.40	2 ev.

Event riskscore 0.00

next event: none in window
blocks entry: no
size multiplier: 1.00×
confidence add: +0

Liquidity

state at decision: thin
score: −0.25

Risk layers0.25% at stop

eligibility	1 ✓	0 ✗
trade	9 ✓	1 ✗
portfolio	11 ✓	0 ✗
system	2 ✓	0 ✗

Three-layer riskcomputed on read from stored checks (no system report then)BLOCK

TRADE RISKBLOCK

blocked by confidence_minimum

confidence minimum52 / 55106%
strategy stage eligibleBACKTEST (sandbox) / PAPER|SHADOW|LIMITED_CAPITAL|PRODUCTION
market liquidity allows entrythin / not closed/maintenance/rollover/reopen
quote fresh0 / 150%
spread sane0.85 / 2.534%
event policyclear / clear
risk reward minimum2 / 1.575%
stop distance sane5.25 / 0.510%
no conflicting position0 open, 0 pending / none
size above minimum0.91 / 0.011%
risk per trade0.248 / 125%

PORTFOLIO RISKPASS

11 checks passed

consecutive loss pause2 / 450%
daily loss limit0 / -20%
drawdown limit0.577 / 106%
gross exposure17 / 5003%
leverage0.17 / 53%
currency exposure14.92 / 3005%
usd factor exposure-19.31 / 2508%
correlated cluster risk0.248 / 1.517%
crypto exposure2.07 / 504%
portfolio volatility4.549 / 2023%
max open positions2 / 825%

SYSTEM RISKPASS

2 checks passed

kill switch inactiveinactive / inactive
trading mode validpaper / paper|backtest|live

BLOCK = a hard check failed; WARN = passed but at >= 80% of a maximum, within 10% of a minimum, or a monitor above its level. Right column: how close a passed check is to its limit. risk_layers-1.0.0+63bba1f7

ConfidenceMODERATE · conf-1.0.0

Not a probability. Heuristic weighted score. Not a probability of profit. Calibrate on >=200 paper trades (reliability diagram) before treating as one.

signal agreement	0.12	0.0
macro confirmation	0.18	−1.6
regime alignment	0.12	+1.1
cross asset	0.12	−0.7
volatility	0.08	+4.0
liquidity	0.08	−1.0
event risk	0.10	0.0
historical performance	0.12	−1.1
risk reward	0.08	+1.3

Trade plan

Entry zone: 2,254.35 – 2,280.13
Reference: 2,267.24
Stop: 1,996.59 · 5.3 ATR
Target 1: 2,808.54 · 2.0R
Reward / risk: 2.00
Expected horizon: 8H-4D · max 96 bars
Expected return: −0.10R
OOS win rate (uncal.): 36.2% · n=56

walk-forward out-of-sample (2026-09-16): n=56, shrunk mean R x 0.74, Beta(1,1) win rate

Size and portfolio impactrisk-1.0.0

Size0.000not approved

Risk0.25%$246 · notional $2,063

Portfolio impact

Not evaluated: the opportunity was rejected before the portfolio projection.

Every risk check

Layer	Check		Value	Limit	Detail
system	kill switch inactive	✓	inactive	inactive
system	trading mode valid	✓	paper	paper\|backtest\|live
eligibility	strategy stage eligible	✓	BACKTEST (sandbox)	PAPER\|SHADOW\|LIMITED_CAPITAL\|PRODUCTION	MOCK sandbox: strategy has not earned PAPER; simulated on synthetic data only
trade	market liquidity allows entry	✓	thin	not closed/maintenance/rollover/reopen	weekend (24/7 venue)
trade	quote fresh	✓	0	15	minutes since last quote
trade	spread sane	✓	0.85	2.5	spread / typical spread
trade	event policy	✓	clear	clear
trade	confidence minimum	✗	52	55	uncalibrated score; event policy adds 0
trade	risk reward minimum	✓	2	1.5
trade	stop distance sane	✓	5.25	0.5	stop distance in ATRs
trade	no conflicting position	✓	0 open, 0 pending	none
portfolio	consecutive loss pause	✓	2	4
portfolio	daily loss limit	✓	0	-2	% since trading-day start
portfolio	drawdown limit	✓	0.5767	10	% below peak equity
trade	size above minimum	✓	0.91	0.01	units (ETH)
trade	risk per trade	✓	0.2475	1	% of equity at the stop
portfolio	gross exposure	✓	17	500	% of equity
portfolio	leverage	✓	0.17	5
portfolio	currency exposure	✓	14.92	300	largest net currency exposure: AUD
portfolio	usd factor exposure	✓	-19.31	250	beta-weighted USD-index-equivalent exposure, % of equity
portfolio	correlated cluster risk	✓	0.248	1.5	no correlated open positions
portfolio	crypto exposure	✓	2.07	50	% of equity
portfolio	portfolio volatility	✓	4.549	20	forecast annualised volatility
portfolio	max open positions	✓	2	8

Sizing tracenever sized from confidence alone

Step	Qty after	×	Detail
fixed_risk	1.838		0.5% of $99,509 = $498 over a stop of 270.648 ($270.6484/unit)
confidence_adjusted	0.919	0.50	confidence 52 -> x0.50 (never above x1.00)
portfolio_risk_adjusted	0.919	1.00	correlated open risk $0 of $1,493 cluster budget -> x1.00
event_policy	0.919	1.00	event policy x1.00, liquidity x1.00
caps	0.910		rounded down to step 0.01

Execution and outcome

No orders: this hypothesis did not reach the broker.

Versionsevery trade is traceable

data mode: MOCK
timestamp: 2026-09-12T00:00:00Z
data source: mock
risk version: risk-1.0.0+e561f3f2
model version: regime-rules-1.0.0+ba09c5ab
feature version: fs-1.0.0+bbfe6af5
strategy version: crypto.market_structure@1.0.0
execution version: exec-1.0.0+821dd562
confidence version: conf-1.0.0+18bcb659
event policy version: evpol-1.0.0+391f9e5d