Delta

← opportunities · hypothesis a97decc3 · 09-16 17:00Z · MOCK data

WHY WTI SHORT?SHORTrejectedcmd.macro_event4H-1WUSD WEAKENINGVOLATILITY COMPRESSIONCRYPTO DELEVERAGINGMOCK

Lifecyclecandidate → qualified → approved → executed, or rejected / expired

No lifecycle transitions recorded: this opportunity was decided before lifecycle tracking began.

Thesisrules-explainer-1.0.0 · from recorded evidence

cmd.macro_event SHORT WTI: macro signal, horizon 4H-1W
disinflationary regime (0.66) helps a short WTI (assumed sensitivity +0.8)
post-release move 3.7 ATR in the trade direction
EIA_CRUDE released 2 bar(s) ago (MOCK surprise +0.54 sd)
Against: usd weakening regime (0.61) hurts a short WTI (assumed sensitivity -0.2)

DecisionREJECTED

rejected: confidence_minimum; consecutive_loss_pause

tradeconfidence minimum58.5 vs 65uncalibrated score; event policy adds 10
portfolioconsecutive loss pause6 vs 4paused until 2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00

Supporting evidence3

▲macro-0.62disinflationary regime (0.66) helps a short WTI (assumed sensitivity +0.8)
▲technical3.68post-release move 3.7 ATR in the trade direction
▲event0.54EIA_CRUDE released 2 bar(s) ago (MOCK surprise +0.54 sd)

Contradicting evidence1

▼macro-0.56usd weakening regime (0.61) hurts a short WTI (assumed sensitivity -0.2)

Invalidation conditionschecked every strategy bar

stop at 178.153 (3.7 x ATR(14))
price returns through the pre-EIA_CRUDE level 178.2
horizon exceeded: 48 bars held

Confirmationuncalibrated scores

cross asset	MIXED	+0.17	0 ev.
macro	MIXED	−0.02	2 ev.
technical	CONFIRMS	+0.71	1 ev.

Event riskscore 0.45

next event: FOMC · 60 min
blocks entry: no
size multiplier: 0.50×
confidence add: +10

pre_event_reduce: FOMC (CRITICAL) in 60 min

Liquidity

state at decision: high
score: +1.00

Risk layers0.11% at stop

eligibility	1 ✓	0 ✗
trade	9 ✓	1 ✗
portfolio	10 ✓	1 ✗
system	2 ✓	0 ✗

ConfidenceELEVATED · conf-1.0.0

Not a probability. Heuristic weighted score. Not a probability of profit. Calibrate on >=200 paper trades (reliability diagram) before treating as one.

signal agreement	0.12	0.0
macro confirmation	0.18	−0.2
regime alignment	0.12	+0.8
cross asset	0.12	+1.0
volatility	0.08	+4.0
liquidity	0.08	+4.0
event risk	0.10	−2.3
historical performance	0.12	−0.2
risk reward	0.08	+1.3

Trade plan

Entry zone: 172.34 – 173.08
Reference: 172.71
Stop: 178.15 · 3.7 ATR
Target 1: 161.82 · 2.0R
Reward / risk: 2.00
Expected horizon: 4H-1W · max 48 bars
Expected return: −0.06R
OOS win rate (uncal.): 44.4% · n=7

walk-forward out-of-sample (2026-09-16): n=7, shrunk mean R x 0.26, Beta(1,1) win rate

Size and portfolio impactrisk-1.0.0

Size0.000not approved

Risk0.11%$109 · notional $3,454

Portfolio impact

Not evaluated: the opportunity was rejected before the portfolio projection.

Every risk check

Layer	Check		Value	Limit	Detail
system	kill switch inactive	✓	inactive	inactive
system	trading mode valid	✓	paper	paper\|backtest\|live
eligibility	strategy stage eligible	✓	BACKTEST (sandbox)	PAPER\|SHADOW\|LIMITED_CAPITAL\|PRODUCTION	MOCK sandbox: strategy has not earned PAPER; simulated on synthetic data only
trade	market liquidity allows entry	✓	high	not closed/maintenance/rollover/reopen	core session: day
trade	quote fresh	✓	0	15	minutes since last quote
trade	spread sane	✓	0.91	2.5	spread / typical spread
trade	event policy	✓	clear	clear	pre_event_reduce: FOMC (CRITICAL) in 60 min
trade	confidence minimum	✗	58.5	65	uncalibrated score; event policy adds 10
trade	risk reward minimum	✓	2	1.5
trade	stop distance sane	✓	3.68	0.5	stop distance in ATRs
trade	no conflicting position	✓	0 open, 0 pending	none
portfolio	consecutive loss pause	✗	6	4	paused until 2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00
portfolio	daily loss limit	✓	0.0553	-2	% since trading-day start
portfolio	drawdown limit	✓	0.9275	10	% below peak equity
trade	size above minimum	✓	20	10	units (barrels)
trade	risk per trade	✓	0.1098	1	% of equity at the stop
portfolio	gross exposure	✓	38.45	500	% of equity
portfolio	leverage	✓	0.384	5
portfolio	currency exposure	✓	34.96	300	largest net currency exposure: EUR
portfolio	usd factor exposure	✓	-30.8	250	beta-weighted USD-index-equivalent exposure, % of equity
portfolio	correlated cluster risk	✓	0.11	1.5	no correlated open positions
portfolio	crypto exposure	✓	0	50	% of equity
portfolio	portfolio volatility	✓	3.657	20	forecast annualised volatility
portfolio	max open positions	✓	2	8

Sizing tracenever sized from confidence alone

Step	Qty after	×	Detail
fixed_risk	91		0.5% of $99,158 = $496 over a stop of 5.44409 ($5.4441/unit)
confidence_adjusted	51	0.56	confidence 58 -> x0.56 (never above x1.00)
portfolio_risk_adjusted	51	1.00	correlated open risk $0 of $1,487 cluster budget -> x1.00
event_policy	25	0.50	event policy x0.50, liquidity x1.00
caps	20		rounded down to step 10

Execution and outcome

No orders: this hypothesis did not reach the broker.

Versionsevery trade is traceable

data mode: MOCK
timestamp: 2026-09-16T17:00:00Z
data source: mock
risk version: risk-1.0.0+e561f3f2
model version: regime-rules-1.0.0+ba09c5ab
feature version: fs-1.0.0+bbfe6af5
strategy version: cmd.macro_event@1.0.0
execution version: exec-1.0.0+821dd562
confidence version: conf-1.0.0+18bcb659
event policy version: evpol-1.0.0+391f9e5d