Delta

← opportunities · hypothesis c223f631 · 09-09 06:00Z · MOCK data

WHY ETH/USD SHORT?SHORTrejectedcrypto.momentum4H-3DVOLATILITY EXPANSIONDISINFLATIONARYLIQUIDITY CONTRACTIONCRYPTO DELEVERAGINGMOCK

Lifecyclecandidate → qualified → approved → executed, or rejected / expired

No lifecycle transitions recorded: this opportunity was decided before lifecycle tracking began.

Thesisrules-explainer-1.0.0 · from recorded evidence

crypto.momentum SHORT ETH/USD: momentum signal, horizon 4H-3D
usd strengthening regime (0.45) helps a short ETHUSD (assumed sensitivity -0.3)
liquidity contraction regime (0.66) helps a short ETHUSD (assumed sensitivity +0.8)
crypto deleveraging regime (0.67) helps a short ETHUSD (assumed sensitivity +1.0)
BTCUSD momentum -1.5 sd with correlation +0.73 confirms the trade
momentum -1.59 sd crossed 1.5

DecisionREJECTED

rejected: consecutive_loss_pause

portfolioconsecutive loss pause4 vs 4paused until 2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00

Supporting evidence6

▲macro0.36usd strengthening regime (0.45) helps a short ETHUSD (assumed sensitivity -0.3)
▲macro-0.63liquidity contraction regime (0.66) helps a short ETHUSD (assumed sensitivity +0.8)
▲macro-0.63crypto deleveraging regime (0.67) helps a short ETHUSD (assumed sensitivity +1.0)
▲cross asset-1.48BTCUSD momentum -1.5 sd with correlation +0.73 confirms the trade
▲technical-1.59momentum -1.59 sd crossed 1.5
▲technical59RSI 59: not at an extreme

Contradicting evidence0

Nothing material against the trade was recorded. Absence of evidence is not evidence of safety.

Invalidation conditionschecked every strategy bar

stop at 2188.88 (5.0 x ATR(14))
120-bar momentum turns positive
horizon exceeded: 72 bars held

Confirmationuncalibrated scores

cross asset	CONFIRMS	+0.74	1 ev.
macro	CONFIRMS	+0.38	3 ev.
technical	CONFIRMS	+0.56	2 ev.

Event riskscore 0.00

next event: none in window
blocks entry: no
size multiplier: 1.00×
confidence add: +0

Liquidity

state at decision: normal
score: +0.50

Risk layers0.24% at stop

eligibility	1 ✓	0 ✗
trade	10 ✓	0 ✗
portfolio	10 ✓	1 ✗
system	2 ✓	0 ✗

Three-layer riskcomputed on read from stored checks (no system report then)BLOCK

TRADE RISKWARN

11 checks passed; close to a limit: confidence_minimum

confidence minimum59.3 / 5593%
strategy stage eligibleBACKTEST (sandbox) / PAPER|SHADOW|LIMITED_CAPITAL|PRODUCTION
market liquidity allows entrynormal / not closed/maintenance/rollover/reopen
quote fresh0 / 150%
spread sane1.03 / 2.541%
event policyclear / clear
risk reward minimum2 / 1.575%
stop distance sane5 / 0.510%
no conflicting position0 open, 0 pending / none
size above minimum1.17 / 0.011%
risk per trade0.237 / 124%

PORTFOLIO RISKBLOCK

blocked by consecutive_loss_pause

consecutive loss pause4 / 4100%
daily loss limit-0.037 / -22%
drawdown limit0.434 / 104%
gross exposure4.02 / 5001%
leverage0.04 / 51%
currency exposure0 / 3000%
usd factor exposure5.82 / 2502%
correlated cluster risk0.484 / 1.532%
crypto exposure4.02 / 508%
portfolio volatility5.74 / 2029%
max open positions2 / 825%

SYSTEM RISKPASS

2 checks passed

kill switch inactiveinactive / inactive
trading mode validpaper / paper|backtest|live

BLOCK = a hard check failed; WARN = passed but at >= 80% of a maximum, within 10% of a minimum, or a monitor above its level. Right column: how close a passed check is to its limit. risk_layers-1.0.0+63bba1f7

ConfidenceELEVATED · conf-1.0.0

Not a probability. Heuristic weighted score. Not a probability of profit. Calibrate on >=200 paper trades (reliability diagram) before treating as one.

signal agreement	0.12	0.0
macro confirmation	0.18	+3.4
regime alignment	0.12	+1.1
cross asset	0.12	+4.4
volatility	0.08	−2.7
liquidity	0.08	+2.0
event risk	0.10	0.0
historical performance	0.12	−0.2
risk reward	0.08	+1.3

Trade plan

Entry zone: 1,976.93 – 1,997.12
Reference: 1,987.02
Stop: 2,188.88 · 5.0 ATR
Target 1: 1,583.31 · 2.0R
Reward / risk: 2.00
Expected horizon: 4H-3D · max 72 bars
Expected return: −0.04R
OOS win rate (uncal.): 46.7% · n=13

walk-forward out-of-sample (2026-09-16): n=13, shrunk mean R x 0.39, Beta(1,1) win rate

Size and portfolio impactrisk-1.0.0

Size0.000not approved

Risk0.24%$236 · notional $2,325

Portfolio impact

Not evaluated: the opportunity was rejected before the portfolio projection.

Every risk check

Layer	Check		Value	Limit	Detail
system	kill switch inactive	✓	inactive	inactive
system	trading mode valid	✓	paper	paper\|backtest\|live
eligibility	strategy stage eligible	✓	BACKTEST (sandbox)	PAPER\|SHADOW\|LIMITED_CAPITAL\|PRODUCTION	MOCK sandbox: strategy has not earned PAPER; simulated on synthetic data only
trade	market liquidity allows entry	✓	normal	not closed/maintenance/rollover/reopen	regular session
trade	quote fresh	✓	0	15	minutes since last quote
trade	spread sane	✓	1.03	2.5	spread / typical spread
trade	event policy	✓	clear	clear
trade	confidence minimum	✓	59.3	55	uncalibrated score; event policy adds 0
trade	risk reward minimum	✓	2	1.5
trade	stop distance sane	✓	5	0.5	stop distance in ATRs
trade	no conflicting position	✓	0 open, 0 pending	none
portfolio	consecutive loss pause	✗	4	4	paused until 2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00
portfolio	daily loss limit	✓	-0.0375	-2	% since trading-day start
portfolio	drawdown limit	✓	0.4342	10	% below peak equity
trade	size above minimum	✓	1.17	0.01	units (ETH)
trade	risk per trade	✓	0.237	1	% of equity at the stop
portfolio	gross exposure	✓	4.02	500	% of equity
portfolio	leverage	✓	0.04	5
portfolio	currency exposure	✓	0	300	largest net currency exposure: -
portfolio	usd factor exposure	✓	5.82	250	beta-weighted USD-index-equivalent exposure, % of equity
portfolio	correlated cluster risk	✓	0.484	1.5	2 positions move together (long-USD expression): SHORT BTCUSD, SHORT ETHUSD
portfolio	crypto exposure	✓	4.02	50	% of equity
portfolio	portfolio volatility	✓	5.74	20	forecast annualised volatility
portfolio	max open positions	✓	2	8

Sizing tracenever sized from confidence alone

Step	Qty after	×	Detail
fixed_risk	2.468		0.5% of $99,652 = $498 over a stop of 201.856 ($201.8562/unit)
confidence_adjusted	1.411	0.57	confidence 59 -> x0.57 (never above x1.00)
portfolio_risk_adjusted	1.179	0.84	correlated open risk $246 of $1,495 cluster budget -> x0.84
event_policy	1.179	1.00	event policy x1.00, liquidity x1.00
caps	1.170		rounded down to step 0.01

Execution and outcome

No orders: this hypothesis did not reach the broker.

Versionsevery trade is traceable

data mode: MOCK
timestamp: 2026-09-09T06:00:00Z
data source: mock
risk version: risk-1.0.0+e561f3f2
model version: regime-rules-1.0.0+ba09c5ab
feature version: fs-1.0.0+bbfe6af5
strategy version: crypto.momentum@1.0.0
execution version: exec-1.0.0+821dd562
confidence version: conf-1.0.0+18bcb659
event policy version: evpol-1.0.0+391f9e5d