Delta

← opportunities · hypothesis d00824e9 · 09-11 02:00Z · MOCK data

WHY GBP/USD LONG?LONGrejectedfx.momentum4H-3DCRYPTO DELEVERAGINGMOCK

Lifecyclecandidate → qualified → approved → executed, or rejected / expired

No lifecycle transitions recorded: this opportunity was decided before lifecycle tracking began.

Thesisrules-explainer-1.0.0 · from recorded evidence

fx.momentum LONG GBP/USD: momentum signal, horizon 4H-3D
usd weakening regime (0.58) helps a long GBPUSD (assumed sensitivity -1.0)
EURUSD momentum +0.7 sd with correlation +0.63 confirms the trade
AUDUSD momentum +1.0 sd with correlation +0.57 confirms the trade
120-bar momentum +1.52 sd crossed +1.5
momentum changed +0.73 sd over 24 bars

DecisionREJECTED

rejected: confidence_minimum; no_conflicting_position

tradeconfidence minimum53.7 vs 55uncalibrated score; event policy adds 0
tradeno conflicting position1 open, 0 pending vs nonean open or pending position already exists on this instrument

Supporting evidence6

▲macro-0.52usd weakening regime (0.58) helps a long GBPUSD (assumed sensitivity -1.0)
▲cross asset0.65EURUSD momentum +0.7 sd with correlation +0.63 confirms the trade
▲cross asset0.98AUDUSD momentum +1.0 sd with correlation +0.57 confirms the trade
▲technical1.52120-bar momentum +1.52 sd crossed +1.5
▲technical0.73momentum changed +0.73 sd over 24 bars
▲technical71RSI 71: momentum not yet exhausted

Contradicting evidence0

Nothing material against the trade was recorded. Absence of evidence is not evidence of safety.

Invalidation conditionschecked every strategy bar

stop at 1.38771 (4.0 x ATR(14))
120-bar momentum turns negative
horizon exceeded: 72 bars held

Confirmationuncalibrated scores

cross asset	CONFIRMS	+0.29	2 ev.
macro	CONFIRMS	+0.42	1 ev.
technical	CONFIRMS	+0.33	3 ev.

Event riskscore 0.00

next event: none in window
blocks entry: no
size multiplier: 1.00×
confidence add: +0

Liquidity

state at decision: thin
score: −0.25

Risk layers0.19% at stop

eligibility	1 ✓	0 ✗
trade	8 ✓	2 ✗
portfolio	11 ✓	0 ✗
system	2 ✓	0 ✗

Three-layer riskcomputed on read from stored checks (no system report then)BLOCK

TRADE RISKBLOCK

blocked by confidence_minimum, no_conflicting_position

confidence minimum53.7 / 55102%
no conflicting position1 open, 0 pending / none
strategy stage eligibleBACKTEST (sandbox) / PAPER|SHADOW|LIMITED_CAPITAL|PRODUCTION
market liquidity allows entrythin / not closed/maintenance/rollover/reopen
quote fresh0 / 150%
spread sane1.87 / 2.575%
event policyclear / clear
risk reward minimum2 / 1.575%
stop distance sane4 / 0.513%
size above minimum16,000 / 1,0006%
risk per trade0.193 / 119%

PORTFOLIO RISKPASS

11 checks passed

consecutive loss pause0 / 40%
daily loss limit-0.108 / -25%
drawdown limit0.429 / 104%
gross exposure46.62 / 5009%
leverage0.466 / 59%
currency exposure43.54 / 30015%
usd factor exposure-35.57 / 25014%
correlated cluster risk0.485 / 1.532%
crypto exposure3.08 / 506%
portfolio volatility5.678 / 2028%
max open positions3 / 838%

SYSTEM RISKPASS

2 checks passed

kill switch inactiveinactive / inactive
trading mode validpaper / paper|backtest|live

BLOCK = a hard check failed; WARN = passed but at >= 80% of a maximum, within 10% of a minimum, or a monitor above its level. Right column: how close a passed check is to its limit. risk_layers-1.0.0+63bba1f7

ConfidenceMODERATE · conf-1.0.0

Not a probability. Heuristic weighted score. Not a probability of profit. Calibrate on >=200 paper trades (reliability diagram) before treating as one.

signal agreement	0.12	0.0
macro confirmation	0.18	+3.8
regime alignment	0.12	−1.1
cross asset	0.12	+1.8
volatility	0.08	−1.4
liquidity	0.08	−1.0
event risk	0.10	0.0
historical performance	0.12	+0.4
risk reward	0.08	+1.3

Trade plan

Entry zone: 1.39895 – 1.40045
Reference: 1.39970
Stop: 1.38771 · 4.0 ATR
Target 1: 1.42369 · 2.0R
Reward / risk: 2.00
Expected horizon: 4H-3D · max 72 bars
Expected return: +0.06R
OOS win rate (uncal.): 59.1% · n=20

walk-forward out-of-sample (2026-09-16): n=20, shrunk mean R x 0.50, Beta(1,1) win rate

Size and portfolio impactrisk-1.0.0

Size0.000not approved

Risk0.19%$192 · notional $22,395

Portfolio impact

Not evaluated: the opportunity was rejected before the portfolio projection.

Every risk check

Layer	Check		Value	Limit	Detail
system	kill switch inactive	✓	inactive	inactive
system	trading mode valid	✓	paper	paper\|backtest\|live
eligibility	strategy stage eligible	✓	BACKTEST (sandbox)	PAPER\|SHADOW\|LIMITED_CAPITAL\|PRODUCTION	MOCK sandbox: strategy has not earned PAPER; simulated on synthetic data only
trade	market liquidity allows entry	✓	thin	not closed/maintenance/rollover/reopen	outside home sessions
trade	quote fresh	✓	0	15	minutes since last quote
trade	spread sane	✓	1.87	2.5	spread / typical spread
trade	event policy	✓	clear	clear
trade	confidence minimum	✗	53.7	55	uncalibrated score; event policy adds 0
trade	risk reward minimum	✓	2	1.5
trade	stop distance sane	✓	4	0.5	stop distance in ATRs
trade	no conflicting position	✗	1 open, 0 pending	none	an open or pending position already exists on this instrument
portfolio	consecutive loss pause	✓	0	4
portfolio	daily loss limit	✓	-0.108	-2	% since trading-day start
portfolio	drawdown limit	✓	0.4293	10	% below peak equity
trade	size above minimum	✓	16,000	1,000	units (GBP)
trade	risk per trade	✓	0.1926	1	% of equity at the stop
portfolio	gross exposure	✓	46.62	500	% of equity
portfolio	leverage	✓	0.466	5
portfolio	currency exposure	✓	43.54	300	largest net currency exposure: GBP
portfolio	usd factor exposure	✓	-35.57	250	beta-weighted USD-index-equivalent exposure, % of equity
portfolio	correlated cluster risk	✓	0.485	1.5	2 positions move together (short-USD expression): LONG GBPUSD, LONG GBPUSD
portfolio	crypto exposure	✓	3.08	50	% of equity
portfolio	portfolio volatility	✓	5.678	20	forecast annualised volatility
portfolio	max open positions	✓	3	8

Sizing tracenever sized from confidence alone

Step	Qty after	×	Detail
fixed_risk	41,544		0.5% of $99,657 = $498 over a stop of 0.0119942 ($0.0120/unit)
confidence_adjusted	20,772	0.50	confidence 54 -> x0.50 (never above x1.00)
portfolio_risk_adjusted	16,724	0.81	correlated open risk $291 of $1,495 cluster budget -> x0.81
event_policy	16,724	1.00	event policy x1.00, liquidity x1.00
caps	16,000		rounded down to step 1000

Execution and outcome

No orders: this hypothesis did not reach the broker.

Versionsevery trade is traceable

data mode: MOCK
timestamp: 2026-09-11T02:00:00Z
data source: mock
risk version: risk-1.0.0+e561f3f2
model version: regime-rules-1.0.0+ba09c5ab
feature version: fs-1.0.0+bbfe6af5
strategy version: fx.momentum@1.0.0
execution version: exec-1.0.0+821dd562
confidence version: conf-1.0.0+18bcb659
event policy version: evpol-1.0.0+391f9e5d