Delta

← opportunities · hypothesis ddd2fa9f · 09-15 12:00Z · MOCK data

WHY EUR/USD SHORT?SHORTrejectedfx.mean_reversion4H-2DRISK ONUSD WEAKENINGVOLATILITY COMPRESSIONCRYPTO DELEVERAGINGMOCK

Lifecyclecandidate → qualified → approved → executed, or rejected / expired

No lifecycle transitions recorded: this opportunity was decided before lifecycle tracking began.

Thesisrules-explainer-1.0.0 · from recorded evidence

fx.mean_reversion SHORT EUR/USD: mean reversion signal, horizon 4H-2D
volatility not expanding
XAUUSD momentum -0.6 sd with correlation +0.33 confirms the trade
price 2.32 sd above its 50-bar mean
efficiency 0.16 < 0.25: ranging market
RSI 71: stretched
Against: usd weakening regime (0.67) hurts a short EURUSD (assumed sensitivity -1.0)

DecisionREJECTED

rejected: confidence_minimum; risk_reward_minimum

tradeconfidence minimum49.8 vs 55uncalibrated score; event policy adds 0
traderisk reward minimum1.251 vs 1.5

Supporting evidence5

▲regime0.06volatility not expanding
▲cross asset-0.60XAUUSD momentum -0.6 sd with correlation +0.33 confirms the trade
▲technical2.32price 2.32 sd above its 50-bar mean
▲technical0.16efficiency 0.16 < 0.25: ranging market
▲technical71RSI 71: stretched

Contradicting evidence6

▼macro-0.63usd weakening regime (0.67) hurts a short EURUSD (assumed sensitivity -1.0)
▼macro0.52risk on regime (0.57) hurts a short EURUSD (assumed sensitivity +0.2)
▼cross asset1.56GBPUSD momentum +1.6 sd with correlation +0.62 contradicts the trade
▼cross assetEURUSD-GBPUSD correlation has broken down (+0.27 short vs +0.62 long): cross-asset read is less reliable
▼cross asset-1.13USDJPY momentum -1.1 sd with correlation -0.63 contradicts the trade
▼cross assetEURUSD-USDJPY correlation has broken down (+0.05 short vs -0.63 long): cross-asset read is less reliable

Invalidation conditionschecked every strategy bar

stop at 1.19998 (3.0 x ATR(14))
move extends beyond 3.7 sd: range broken
horizon exceeded: 48 bars held

Confirmationuncalibrated scores

cross asset	CONTRADICTS	−0.73	5 ev.
macro	CONTRADICTS	−0.58	3 ev.
technical	CONFIRMS	+0.25	3 ev.

Event riskscore 0.00

next event: none in window
blocks entry: no
size multiplier: 1.00×
confidence add: +0

Liquidity

state at decision: high
score: +1.00

Risk layers0.24% at stop

eligibility	1 ✓	0 ✗
trade	8 ✓	2 ✗
portfolio	11 ✓	0 ✗
system	2 ✓	0 ✗

ConfidenceMODERATE · conf-1.0.0

Not a probability. Heuristic weighted score. Not a probability of profit. Calibrate on >=200 paper trades (reliability diagram) before treating as one.

signal agreement	0.12	0.0
macro confirmation	0.18	−5.2
regime alignment	0.12	+2.1
cross asset	0.12	−4.4
volatility	0.08	+4.0
liquidity	0.08	+4.0
event risk	0.10	0.0
historical performance	0.12	0.0
risk reward	0.08	−0.7

Trade plan

Entry zone: 1.19400 – 1.19492
Reference: 1.19446
Stop: 1.19998 · 3.0 ATR
Target 1: 1.18756 · 50-bar mean
Reward / risk: 1.25
Expected horizon: 4H-2D · max 48 bars
Expected return: unavailable
OOS win rate (uncal.): unavailable

unavailable: no out-of-sample record for this strategy/instrument

Size and portfolio impactrisk-1.0.0

Size0.000not approved

Risk0.24%$243 · notional $52,556

Portfolio impact

Not evaluated: the opportunity was rejected before the portfolio projection.

Every risk check

Layer	Check		Value	Limit	Detail
system	kill switch inactive	✓	inactive	inactive
system	trading mode valid	✓	paper	paper\|backtest\|live
eligibility	strategy stage eligible	✓	BACKTEST (sandbox)	PAPER\|SHADOW\|LIMITED_CAPITAL\|PRODUCTION	MOCK sandbox: strategy has not earned PAPER; simulated on synthetic data only
trade	market liquidity allows entry	✓	high	not closed/maintenance/rollover/reopen	session overlap: london + new_york
trade	quote fresh	✓	0	15	minutes since last quote
trade	spread sane	✓	0.92	2.5	spread / typical spread
trade	event policy	✓	clear	clear
trade	confidence minimum	✗	49.8	55	uncalibrated score; event policy adds 0
trade	risk reward minimum	✗	1.251	1.5
trade	stop distance sane	✓	3	0.5	stop distance in ATRs
trade	no conflicting position	✓	0 open, 0 pending	none
portfolio	consecutive loss pause	✓	5	4
portfolio	daily loss limit	✓	0	-2	% since trading-day start
portfolio	drawdown limit	✓	0.9259	10	% below peak equity
trade	size above minimum	✓	44,000	1,000	units (EUR)
trade	risk per trade	✓	0.2447	1	% of equity at the stop
portfolio	gross exposure	✓	53	500	% of equity
portfolio	leverage	✓	0.53	5
portfolio	currency exposure	✓	-53	300	largest net currency exposure: EUR
portfolio	usd factor exposure	✓	49.16	250	beta-weighted USD-index-equivalent exposure, % of equity
portfolio	correlated cluster risk	✓	0.245	1.5	no correlated open positions
portfolio	crypto exposure	✓	0	50	% of equity
portfolio	portfolio volatility	✓	5.131	20	forecast annualised volatility
portfolio	max open positions	✓	1	8

Sizing tracenever sized from confidence alone

Step	Qty after	×	Detail
fixed_risk	89,900		0.5% of $99,160 = $496 over a stop of 0.00551502 ($0.0055/unit)
confidence_adjusted	44,950	0.50	confidence 50 -> x0.50 (never above x1.00)
portfolio_risk_adjusted	44,950	1.00	correlated open risk $0 of $1,487 cluster budget -> x1.00
event_policy	44,950	1.00	event policy x1.00, liquidity x1.00
caps	44,000		rounded down to step 1000

Execution and outcome

No orders: this hypothesis did not reach the broker.

Versionsevery trade is traceable

data mode: MOCK
timestamp: 2026-09-15T12:00:00Z
data source: mock
risk version: risk-1.0.0+e561f3f2
model version: regime-rules-1.0.0+ba09c5ab
feature version: fs-1.0.0+bbfe6af5
strategy version: fx.mean_reversion@1.0.0
execution version: exec-1.0.0+821dd562
confidence version: conf-1.0.0+18bcb659
event policy version: evpol-1.0.0+391f9e5d