ΔDELTAMOCKPAPERSHADOWLIVESandboxKill offUnlock
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MOCK DATA — every price, event and result on this screen comes from Delta's synthetic world. None of it is a market price or evidence of real-market edge.

What changed

Differences between consecutive global states: regime flips, CUSUM transition warnings, large moves in model confidence and changes in the derived macro regime; confirmed cross-asset relationship changes and correlation strength moves; and every strategy signal with its decision. Each change is stored once and never rewritten. Event-risk changes are added in a later phase.

AllMacroRiskUSDVolatilityLiquidityInflationGrowthCommodityCryptoRelationshipsCorrelationSignals24h72h7d30d
Changes86 in the last 30d
State barSubjectChangeKindEvidenceMode
09-17 01:00Z
prev 09-17 00:00Z
SILVER/WTISILVER/WTI relationship: RECOVERING → STABLE (+0.15)state change
  • ▲120h correlation +0.55; |short| - |long| +0.15
  • ▲720h correlation +0.39 (previous bar +0.39)
  • ▲raw state STABLE has held 6 bars (published after confirmation)
MOCK
09-17 01:00Z
prev 09-17 00:00Z
USD/JPYUSD/JPY relationship: BREAKING DOWN → RECOVERING (+0.10)state change
  • ▲120h correlation -0.59; |short| - |long| -0.10
  • ▲720h correlation -0.69 (previous bar -0.69)
  • ▲raw state RECOVERING has held 6 bars (published after confirmation)
MOCK
09-17 00:00Z
prev 09-16 23:00Z
USD/GOLDUSD/GOLD relationship: STABLE → STRENGTHENING (−0.19)state change
  • ▲120h correlation -0.65; |short| - |long| +0.19
  • ▲720h correlation -0.46 (previous bar -0.46)
  • ▲raw state STRENGTHENING has held 6 bars (published after confirmation)
MOCK
09-17 00:00Z
prev 09-16 23:00Z
JPY/GOLDJPY/GOLD relationship: STABLE → STRENGTHENING (+0.15)state change
  • ▲120h correlation +0.64; |short| - |long| +0.15
  • ▲720h correlation +0.48 (previous bar +0.48)
  • ▲raw state STRENGTHENING has held 6 bars (published after confirmation)
MOCK
09-17 00:00Z
prev 09-16 23:00Z
EUR/GOLDEUR/GOLD relationship: STABLE → STRENGTHENING (+0.24)state change
  • ▲120h correlation +0.64; |short| - |long| +0.24
  • ▲720h correlation +0.40 (previous bar +0.40)
  • ▲raw state STRENGTHENING has held 6 bars (published after confirmation)
MOCK
09-17 00:00Z
prev 09-16 23:00Z
EUR/JPYEUR/JPY relationship: BREAKING DOWN → WEAKENING (−0.19)state change
  • ▲120h correlation +0.44; |short| - |long| -0.19
  • ▲720h correlation +0.63 (previous bar +0.63)
  • ▲raw state WEAKENING has held 6 bars (published after confirmation)
MOCK
09-17 00:00Z
prev —
ETHUSDcrypto.momentum: SHORT ETH/USD signal → APPROVED (confidence 67, uncalibrated)signal
  • ▲momentum -1.64 sd crossed 1.5
  • ▲RSI 45: not at an extreme
  • ▲risk off regime (0.37) helps a short ETHUSD (assumed sensitivity +0.7)
MOCK
09-17 00:00Z
prev —
BTCUSDcrypto.market_structure: SHORT BTC/USD signal → APPROVED (confidence 60, uncalibrated)signal
  • ▲lower highs and lower lows
  • ▲close broke the last confirmed swing low
  • ▲risk off regime (0.37) helps a short BTCUSD (assumed sensitivity +0.6)
MOCK
09-17 00:00Z
prev 09-16 23:00Z
VOLATILITYVOLATILITY: VOLATILITY COMPRESSION → VOLATILITY EXPANSIONstate change
  • ▲vix_chg_120 contributes +0.59 (weight +0.4) toward volatility expansion
  • ▲volatility expansion is the leading label (score 0.49)
  • ▼xasset_log_rv_ratio contributes -0.11 (weight +0.6) toward volatility compression
MOCK
09-16 23:00Z
prev 09-16 22:00Z
MACROMacro regime (derived): GOLDILOCKS → DISINFLATIONARYmacro change
  • ▲INFLATION is disinflationary
MOCK
09-16 23:00Z
prev 09-16 22:00Z
RISKRISK: RISK ON → NEUTRALstate change
  • ▲vix_z_500 contributes -0.32: small, consistent with neutral
  • ▲btc_mom_480 contributes -0.28: small, consistent with neutral
  • ▲spx_mom_480 contributes +0.19: small, consistent with neutral
MOCK
09-16 21:00Z
prev 09-16 20:00Z
GOLD/SILVERGOLD/SILVER relationship: STABLE → RECOVERING (−0.11)state change
  • ▲120h correlation +0.33; |short| - |long| -0.11
  • ▲720h correlation +0.44 (previous bar +0.44)
  • ▲raw state RECOVERING has held 6 bars (published after confirmation)
MOCK
09-16 20:00Z
prev 09-16 19:00Z
INFLATIONINFLATION: NEUTRAL → DISINFLATIONARYstate change
  • ▲us10y_chg_480 contributes -0.59 (weight +0.3) toward disinflationary
  • ▲oil_mom_480 contributes -0.45 (weight +0.4) toward disinflationary
  • ▲gold_mom_480 contributes -0.34 (weight +0.3) toward disinflationary
MOCK
09-16 20:00Z
prev 09-16 19:00Z
AUD/RISK_ASSETSAUD/RISK_ASSETS relationship: STRENGTHENING → STABLE (−0.14)state change
  • ▲120h correlation +0.20; |short| - |long| -0.14
  • ▲720h correlation +0.33 (previous bar +0.37)
  • ▲raw state STABLE has held 6 bars (published after confirmation)
MOCK
09-16 20:00Z
prev 09-16 19:00Z
BTC/RISK_ASSETSBTC/RISK_ASSETS relationship: STABLE → WEAKENING (−0.14)state change
  • ▲120h correlation +0.19; |short| - |long| -0.14
  • ▲720h correlation +0.33 (previous bar +0.34)
  • ▲raw state WEAKENING has held 6 bars (published after confirmation)
MOCK
09-16 19:00Z
prev 09-16 18:00Z
JPY/YIELDSJPY/YIELDS correlation (720h): MODERATE → WEAK (+0.07)state change
  • ▲120h correlation +0.11; |short| - |long| -0.13
  • ▲720h correlation -0.24 (previous bar -0.32)
  • ▲raw state STABLE has held 51 bars (published after confirmation)
MOCK
09-16 19:00Z
prev 09-16 18:00Z
ETH/RISK_ASSETSETH/RISK_ASSETS correlation (720h): MODERATE → WEAK (−0.04)state change
  • ▲120h correlation -0.09; |short| - |long| -0.15
  • ▲720h correlation +0.25 (previous bar +0.29)
  • ▲raw state WEAKENING has held 4 bars (published after confirmation)
MOCK
09-16 19:00Z
prev 09-16 18:00Z
COPPER/RISK_ASSETSCOPPER/RISK_ASSETS relationship: STRENGTHENING → STABLE (+0.06)state change
  • ▲120h correlation +0.47; |short| - |long| +0.06
  • ▲720h correlation +0.41 (previous bar +0.39)
  • ▲raw state STABLE has held 6 bars (published after confirmation)
MOCK
09-16 19:00Z
prev 09-16 18:00Z
VOLATILITYVOLATILITY: model confidence in VOLATILITY COMPRESSION fell 0.38 → 0.08 (uncalibrated) (−0.30)confidence shift
  • ▼vix_chg_120 contributes +0.60 (weight +0.4) toward volatility expansion
  • ▼leading label is volatility expansion (score 0.47); volatility compression is held by hysteresis
  • ▼model confidence 0.08 below the hysteresis exit level 0.35; the label is fading
MOCK
09-16 18:00Z
prev 09-16 17:00Z
GBP/JPYGBP/JPY relationship: BREAKING DOWN → WEAKENING (−0.40)state change
  • ▲120h correlation -0.01; |short| - |long| -0.39
  • ▲720h correlation +0.40 (previous bar +0.40)
  • ▲raw state WEAKENING has held 6 bars (published after confirmation)
MOCK
09-16 18:00Z
prev 09-16 17:00Z
VOLATILITYVOLATILITY: model confidence in VOLATILITY COMPRESSION fell 0.65 → 0.38 (uncalibrated) (−0.27)confidence shift
  • ▼leading label is normal (score 0.50); volatility compression is held by hysteresis
MOCK
09-16 15:00Z
prev 09-16 14:00Z
COPPER/BTCCOPPER/BTC relationship: STRENGTHENING → STABLE (+0.10)state change
  • ▲120h correlation +0.43; |short| - |long| +0.10
  • ▲720h correlation +0.33 (previous bar +0.33)
  • ▲raw state STABLE has held 6 bars (published after confirmation)
MOCK
09-16 12:00Z
prev 09-16 11:00Z
AUD/BTCAUD/BTC relationship: STRENGTHENING → STABLE (+0.10)state change
  • ▲120h correlation +0.43; |short| - |long| +0.10
  • ▲720h correlation +0.33 (previous bar +0.33)
  • ▲raw state STABLE has held 6 bars (published after confirmation)
MOCK
09-16 07:00Z
prev 09-16 06:00Z
BTC/RISK_ASSETSBTC/RISK_ASSETS relationship: STRENGTHENING → STABLE (+0.06)state change
  • ▲120h correlation +0.41; |short| - |long| +0.06
  • ▲720h correlation +0.35 (previous bar +0.35)
  • ▲raw state STABLE has held 6 bars (published after confirmation)
MOCK
09-16 06:00Z
prev 09-16 05:00Z
GOLD/SILVERGOLD/SILVER relationship: WEAKENING → STABLE (−0.16)state change
  • ▲120h correlation +0.30; |short| - |long| -0.16
  • ▲720h correlation +0.47 (previous bar +0.46)
  • ▲raw state STABLE has held 6 bars (published after confirmation)
MOCK
09-16 05:00Z
prev 09-16 04:00Z
COPPER/ETHCOPPER/ETH relationship: STRENGTHENING → STABLE (+0.08)state change
  • ▲120h correlation +0.38; |short| - |long| +0.08
  • ▲720h correlation +0.30 (previous bar +0.30)
  • ▲raw state STABLE has held 6 bars (published after confirmation)
MOCK
09-16 03:00Z
prev 09-16 02:00Z
GBP/JPYGBP/JPY relationship: WEAKENING → BREAKING DOWN (−0.46)state change
  • ▲120h correlation -0.06; |short| - |long| -0.34
  • ▲720h correlation +0.40 (previous bar +0.40)
  • ▲raw state BREAKING DOWN has held 6 bars (published after confirmation)
MOCK
09-16 00:00Z
prev 09-15 23:00Z
JPY/RISK_ASSETSJPY/RISK_ASSETS relationship: STRENGTHENING → STABLE (−0.07)state change
  • ▲120h correlation -0.41; |short| - |long| +0.07
  • ▲720h correlation -0.34 (previous bar -0.34)
  • ▲raw state STABLE has held 6 bars (published after confirmation)
MOCK
09-15 23:00Z
prev 09-15 22:00Z
BTC/RISK_ASSETSBTC/RISK_ASSETS correlation (720h): WEAK → MODERATE (+0.03)state change
  • ▲120h correlation +0.46; |short| - |long| +0.10
  • ▲720h correlation +0.35 (previous bar +0.33)
  • ▲raw state STRENGTHENING has held 41 bars (published after confirmation)
MOCK
09-15 22:00Z
prev 09-15 21:00Z
GBP/AUDGBP/AUD correlation (720h): STRONG → MODERATE (−0.02)state change
  • ▲120h correlation +0.56; |short| - |long| +0.02
  • ▲720h correlation +0.54 (previous bar +0.56)
  • ▲raw state RECOVERING has held 152 bars (published after confirmation)
MOCK
09-15 20:00Z
prev 09-15 19:00Z
COPPER/RISK_ASSETSCOPPER/RISK_ASSETS relationship: STABLE → STRENGTHENING (+0.22)state change
  • ▲120h correlation +0.64; |short| - |long| +0.22
  • ▲720h correlation +0.42 (previous bar +0.42)
  • ▲raw state STRENGTHENING has held 6 bars (published after confirmation)
MOCK
09-15 18:00Z
prev 09-15 17:00Z
EUR/SILVEREUR/SILVER relationship: WEAKENING → STABLE (−0.04)state change
  • ▲120h correlation +0.29; |short| - |long| -0.04
  • ▲720h correlation +0.32 (previous bar +0.32)
  • ▲raw state STABLE has held 6 bars (published after confirmation)
MOCK
09-15 18:00Z
prev 09-15 17:00Z
USD/EURUSD/EUR relationship: WEAKENING → STABLE (+0.02)state change
  • ▲120h correlation -0.87; |short| - |long| -0.02
  • ▲720h correlation -0.89 (previous bar -0.89)
  • ▲raw state STABLE has held 6 bars (published after confirmation)
MOCK
09-15 18:00Z
prev 09-15 17:00Z
EUR/GBPEUR/GBP relationship: BREAKING DOWN → RECOVERING (+0.12)state change
  • ▲120h correlation +0.74; |short| - |long| +0.12
  • ▲720h correlation +0.62 (previous bar +0.62)
  • ▲raw state RECOVERING has held 6 bars (published after confirmation)
MOCK
09-15 18:00Z
prev 09-15 17:00Z
EUR/GOLDEUR/GOLD relationship: WEAKENING → STABLE (0.00)state change
  • ▲120h correlation +0.34; |short| - |long| +0.00
  • ▲720h correlation +0.34 (previous bar +0.34)
  • ▲raw state STABLE has held 6 bars (published after confirmation)
MOCK
09-15 01:00Z
prev 09-15 00:00Z
SILVER/COPPERSILVER/COPPER relationship: STRENGTHENING → STABLE (+0.13)state change
  • ▲120h correlation +0.45; |short| - |long| +0.13
  • ▲720h correlation +0.32 (previous bar +0.32)
  • ▲raw state STABLE has held 6 bars (published after confirmation)
MOCK
09-14 22:00Z
prev 09-14 21:00Z
EUR/SILVEREUR/SILVER relationship: STABLE → WEAKENING (−0.13)state change
  • ▲120h correlation +0.19; |short| - |long| -0.13
  • ▲720h correlation +0.32 (previous bar +0.32)
  • ▲raw state WEAKENING has held 6 bars (published after confirmation)
MOCK
09-14 22:00Z
prev 09-14 21:00Z
JPY/YIELDSJPY/YIELDS relationship: WEAKENING → STABLE (+0.07)state change
  • ▲120h correlation -0.24; |short| - |long| -0.07
  • ▲720h correlation -0.31 (previous bar -0.31)
  • ▲raw state STABLE has held 6 bars (published after confirmation)
MOCK
09-14 19:00Z
prev 09-14 18:00Z
MACROMacro regime (derived): MIXED / TRANSITIONAL → GOLDILOCKSmacro change
  • ▲RISK is risk on
  • ▲GROWTH is neutral
  • ▲INFLATION is neutral
MOCK
09-14 19:00Z
prev 09-14 18:00Z
EUR/GBPEUR/GBP relationship: WEAKENING → BREAKING DOWN (−0.36)state change
  • ▲120h correlation +0.26; |short| - |long| -0.36
  • ▲720h correlation +0.62 (previous bar +0.62)
  • ▲raw state BREAKING DOWN has held 6 bars (published after confirmation)
MOCK
09-14 19:00Z
prev 09-14 18:00Z
JPY/RISK_ASSETSJPY/RISK_ASSETS relationship: STABLE → STRENGTHENING (−0.28)state change
  • ▲120h correlation -0.59; |short| - |long| +0.28
  • ▲720h correlation -0.31 (previous bar -0.31)
  • ▲raw state STRENGTHENING has held 6 bars (published after confirmation)
MOCK
09-14 19:00Z
prev 09-14 18:00Z
USD/JPYUSD/JPY relationship: WEAKENING → BREAKING DOWN (+0.53)state change
  • ▲120h correlation -0.09; |short| - |long| -0.53
  • ▲720h correlation -0.62 (previous bar -0.62)
  • ▲raw state BREAKING DOWN has held 6 bars (published after confirmation)
MOCK
09-14 19:00Z
prev 09-14 18:00Z
RISKRISK: NEUTRAL → RISK ONstate change
  • ▲spx_mom_480 contributes +0.48 (weight +0.35) toward risk on
  • ▲vix_z_500 contributes +0.23 (weight -0.25) toward risk on
  • ▲audjpy_mom_480 contributes +0.16 (weight +0.25) toward risk on
MOCK
09-14 18:00Z
prev 09-14 17:00Z
VOLATILITYVOLATILITY: NORMAL → VOLATILITY COMPRESSIONstate change
  • ▲vix_chg_120 contributes -0.49 (weight +0.4) toward volatility compression
  • ▲xasset_log_rv_ratio contributes -0.22 (weight +0.6) toward volatility compression
  • ▲volatility compression is the leading label (score 0.63)
MOCK
09-14 13:00Z
prev 09-14 12:00Z
AUD/RISK_ASSETSAUD/RISK_ASSETS relationship: STABLE → STRENGTHENING (+0.18)state change
  • ▲120h correlation +0.54; |short| - |long| +0.18
  • ▲720h correlation +0.36 (previous bar +0.36)
  • ▲raw state STRENGTHENING has held 6 bars (published after confirmation)
MOCK
09-14 12:00Z
prev 09-14 11:00Z
BTC/RISK_ASSETSBTC/RISK_ASSETS relationship: STABLE → STRENGTHENING (+0.21)state change
  • ▲120h correlation +0.53; |short| - |long| +0.21
  • ▲720h correlation +0.32 (previous bar +0.32)
  • ▲raw state STRENGTHENING has held 6 bars (published after confirmation)
MOCK
09-14 04:00Z
prev 09-14 03:00Z
GOLD/SILVERGOLD/SILVER relationship: RECOVERING → WEAKENING (−0.20)state change
  • ▲120h correlation +0.29; |short| - |long| -0.20
  • ▲720h correlation +0.49 (previous bar +0.49)
  • ▲raw state WEAKENING has held 6 bars (published after confirmation)
MOCK
09-14 04:00Z
prev 09-14 03:00Z
SILVER/WTISILVER/WTI relationship: STRENGTHENING → RECOVERING (+0.13)state change
  • ▲120h correlation +0.55; |short| - |long| +0.13
  • ▲720h correlation +0.41 (previous bar +0.41)
  • ▲raw state RECOVERING has held 6 bars (published after confirmation)
MOCK
09-14 03:00Z
prev 09-14 02:00Z
EUR/JPYEUR/JPY relationship: WEAKENING → BREAKING DOWN (−0.53)state change
  • ▲120h correlation +0.10; |short| - |long| -0.53
  • ▲720h correlation +0.64 (previous bar +0.64)
  • ▲raw state BREAKING DOWN has held 6 bars (published after confirmation)
MOCK
09-14 03:00Z
prev 09-14 02:00Z
USD/JPYUSD/JPY relationship: STABLE → WEAKENING (+0.29)state change
  • ▲120h correlation -0.33; |short| - |long| -0.29
  • ▲720h correlation -0.62 (previous bar -0.62)
  • ▲raw state WEAKENING has held 6 bars (published after confirmation)
MOCK
09-14 03:00Z
prev 09-14 02:00Z
EUR/GBPEUR/GBP relationship: BREAKING DOWN → WEAKENING (−0.23)state change
  • ▲120h correlation +0.39; |short| - |long| -0.23
  • ▲720h correlation +0.62 (previous bar +0.62)
  • ▲raw state WEAKENING has held 6 bars (published after confirmation)
MOCK
09-13 21:00Z
prev 09-13 20:00Z
EUR/GBPEUR/GBP relationship: WEAKENING → BREAKING DOWN (−0.33)state change
  • ▲120h correlation +0.29; |short| - |long| -0.33
  • ▲720h correlation +0.61 (previous bar +0.61)
  • ▲raw state BREAKING DOWN has held 6 bars (published after confirmation)
MOCK
09-13 16:00Z
prev 09-13 15:00Z
USD/EURUSD/EUR relationship: STABLE → WEAKENING (+0.22)state change
  • ▲120h correlation -0.66; |short| - |long| -0.22
  • ▲720h correlation -0.89 (previous bar -0.89)
  • ▲raw state WEAKENING has held 6 bars (published after confirmation)
MOCK
09-12 17:00Z
prev 09-12 16:00Z
EUR/GOLDEUR/GOLD relationship: STABLE → WEAKENING (−0.15)state change
  • ▲120h correlation +0.19; |short| - |long| -0.15
  • ▲720h correlation +0.35 (previous bar +0.35)
  • ▲raw state WEAKENING has held 6 bars (published after confirmation)
MOCK
09-12 14:00Z
prev 09-12 13:00Z
EUR/JPYEUR/JPY relationship: STABLE → WEAKENING (−0.27)state change
  • ▲120h correlation +0.39; |short| - |long| -0.27
  • ▲720h correlation +0.66 (previous bar +0.66)
  • ▲raw state WEAKENING has held 6 bars (published after confirmation)
MOCK
09-12 09:00Z
prev 09-12 08:00Z
VOLATILITYVOLATILITY: VOLATILITY COMPRESSION → NORMALstate change
  • ▲xasset_log_rv_ratio contributes -0.04: small, consistent with normal
  • ▲vix_chg_120 contributes -0.03: small, consistent with normal
  • ▲normal is the leading label (score 0.55)
MOCK
09-12 08:00Z
prev 09-12 07:00Z
COPPER/BTCCOPPER/BTC relationship: STABLE → STRENGTHENING (+0.22)state change
  • ▲120h correlation +0.53; |short| - |long| +0.22
  • ▲720h correlation +0.31 (previous bar +0.31)
  • ▲raw state STRENGTHENING has held 6 bars (published after confirmation)
MOCK
09-12 08:00Z
prev 09-12 07:00Z
AUD/BTCAUD/BTC relationship: STABLE → STRENGTHENING (+0.22)state change
  • ▲120h correlation +0.53; |short| - |long| +0.22
  • ▲720h correlation +0.31 (previous bar +0.31)
  • ▲raw state STRENGTHENING has held 6 bars (published after confirmation)
MOCK
09-12 04:00Z
prev 09-12 03:00Z
GOLD/SILVERGOLD/SILVER relationship: WEAKENING → RECOVERING (−0.05)state change
  • ▲120h correlation +0.49; |short| - |long| -0.05
  • ▲720h correlation +0.54 (previous bar +0.54)
  • ▲raw state RECOVERING has held 6 bars (published after confirmation)
MOCK
09-12 03:00Z
prev 09-12 02:00Z
GBP/JPYGBP/JPY relationship: STRENGTHENING → STABLE (+0.06)state change
  • ▲120h correlation +0.38; |short| - |long| +0.06
  • ▲720h correlation +0.32 (previous bar +0.32)
  • ▲raw state STABLE has held 6 bars (published after confirmation)
MOCK
09-12 03:00Z
prev 09-12 02:00Z
EUR/AUDEUR/AUD relationship: STRENGTHENING → RECOVERING (+0.11)state change
  • ▲120h correlation +0.55; |short| - |long| +0.11
  • ▲720h correlation +0.45 (previous bar +0.45)
  • ▲raw state RECOVERING has held 6 bars (published after confirmation)
MOCK
09-12 03:00Z
prev 09-12 02:00Z
EUR/GBPEUR/GBP relationship: STABLE → WEAKENING (−0.20)state change
  • ▲120h correlation +0.42; |short| - |long| -0.20
  • ▲720h correlation +0.62 (previous bar +0.62)
  • ▲raw state WEAKENING has held 6 bars (published after confirmation)
MOCK
09-12 03:00Z
prev 09-12 02:00Z
USD/AUDUSD/AUD relationship: STRENGTHENING → RECOVERING (−0.09)state change
  • ▲120h correlation -0.77; |short| - |long| +0.09
  • ▲720h correlation -0.68 (previous bar -0.68)
  • ▲raw state RECOVERING has held 6 bars (published after confirmation)
MOCK
09-11 20:00Z
prev 09-11 19:00Z
AUD/SILVERAUD/SILVER relationship: STRENGTHENING → STABLE (+0.07)state change
  • ▲120h correlation +0.47; |short| - |long| +0.07
  • ▲720h correlation +0.41 (previous bar +0.41)
  • ▲raw state STABLE has held 6 bars (published after confirmation)
MOCK
09-11 18:00Z
prev 09-11 17:00Z
USD/JPYUSD/JPY relationship: STRENGTHENING → STABLE (−0.05)state change
  • ▲120h correlation -0.69; |short| - |long| +0.05
  • ▲720h correlation -0.64 (previous bar -0.64)
  • ▲raw state STABLE has held 6 bars (published after confirmation)
MOCK
09-11 08:00Z
prev 09-11 07:00Z
VOLATILITYVOLATILITY: model confidence in VOLATILITY COMPRESSION rose 0.52 → 0.89 (uncalibrated) (+0.37)confidence shift
  • ▲xasset_log_rv_ratio contributes -0.93 (weight +0.6) toward volatility compression
  • ▲vix_chg_120 contributes -0.41 (weight +0.4) toward volatility compression
  • ▲volatility compression is the leading label (score 0.89)
MOCK
09-11 05:00Z
prev 09-11 04:00Z
VOLATILITYVOLATILITY: VOLATILITY EXPANSION → VOLATILITY COMPRESSIONstate change
  • ▲vix_chg_120 contributes -0.37 (weight +0.4) toward volatility compression
  • ▲xasset_log_rv_ratio contributes -0.21 (weight +0.6) toward volatility compression
  • ▲volatility compression is the leading label (score 0.55)
MOCK
09-11 04:00Z
prev 09-11 03:00Z
USDUSD: NEUTRAL → USD WEAKENINGstate change
  • ▲usd_mom_120 contributes -0.44 (weight +0.4) toward usd weakening
  • ▲usd_mom_480 contributes -0.28 (weight +0.6) toward usd weakening
  • ▲usd weakening is the leading label (score 0.63)
MOCK
09-11 00:00Z
prev 09-10 23:00Z
VOLATILITYVOLATILITY: model confidence in VOLATILITY EXPANSION fell 0.58 → 0.03 (uncalibrated) (−0.55)confidence shift
  • ▼xasset_log_rv_ratio contributes -0.49 (weight +0.6) toward volatility compression
  • ▼vix_chg_120 contributes -0.40 (weight +0.4) toward volatility compression
  • ▼leading label is volatility compression (score 0.73); volatility expansion is held by hysteresis
MOCK
09-10 18:00Z
prev 09-10 17:00Z
INFLATIONINFLATION: DISINFLATIONARY → NEUTRALstate change
  • ▲oil_mom_480 contributes +0.12: small, consistent with neutral
  • ▲gold_mom_480 contributes +0.10: small, consistent with neutral
  • ▲neutral is the leading label (score 0.54)
MOCK
09-10 18:00Z
prev 09-10 17:00Z
MACROMacro regime (derived): DISINFLATIONARY → MIXED / TRANSITIONALmacro change
  • ▲no macro rule is fully satisfied by the current component states
  • ▼nearest rule GOLDILOCKS needs RISK in risk on; it is neutral
MOCK
09-10 14:00Z
prev 09-10 13:00Z
LIQUIDITYLIQUIDITY: LIQUIDITY CONTRACTION → NEUTRALstate change
  • ▲us2y_chg_480 contributes +0.19: small, consistent with neutral
  • ▲usd_mom_480 contributes +0.16: small, consistent with neutral
  • ▲neutral is the leading label (score 0.54)
MOCK
09-10 01:00Z
prev 09-10 00:00Z
SILVER/COPPERSILVER/COPPER relationship: STABLE → STRENGTHENING (+0.20)state change
  • ▲120h correlation +0.51; |short| - |long| +0.20
  • ▲720h correlation +0.32 (previous bar +0.32)
  • ▲raw state STRENGTHENING has held 6 bars (published after confirmation)
MOCK
09-09 06:00Z
prev 09-09 05:00Z
CRYPTOCRYPTO: CUSUM transition warning cleared while CRYPTO DELEVERAGINGwarning cleared
  • ▲btc_mom_480 contributes -0.82 (weight +0.5) toward crypto deleveraging
  • ▲eth_btc_mom_480 contributes -0.39 (weight +0.3) toward crypto deleveraging
  • ▲crypto deleveraging is the leading label (score 0.74)
MOCK
09-09 03:00Z
prev 09-09 02:00Z
INFLATIONINFLATION: NEUTRAL → DISINFLATIONARYstate change
  • ▲us10y_chg_480 contributes -0.27 (weight +0.3) toward disinflationary
  • ▲gold_mom_480 contributes -0.22 (weight +0.3) toward disinflationary
  • ▲oil_mom_480 contributes -0.17 (weight +0.4) toward disinflationary
MOCK
09-09 03:00Z
prev 09-09 02:00Z
MACROMacro regime (derived): MIXED / TRANSITIONAL → DISINFLATIONARYmacro change
  • ▲INFLATION is disinflationary
MOCK
09-08 05:00Z
prev 09-08 04:00Z
GROWTHGROWTH: GROWTH ACCELERATION → NEUTRALstate change
  • ▲spx_mom_480 contributes +0.30: small, consistent with neutral
  • ▲curve_chg_480 contributes -0.28: small, consistent with neutral
  • ▲copper_gold_mom_480 contributes +0.15: small, consistent with neutral
MOCK
09-07 17:00Z
prev 09-07 16:00Z
VOLATILITYVOLATILITY: CUSUM transition warning cleared while VOLATILITY EXPANSIONwarning cleared
  • ▲xasset_log_rv_ratio contributes +1.05 (weight +0.6) toward volatility expansion
  • ▲volatility expansion is the leading label (score 0.51)
  • ▲held for 142 bars
MOCK
09-06 20:00Z
prev 09-06 19:00Z
CRYPTOCRYPTO: CUSUM transition warning raised while CRYPTO DELEVERAGINGwarning raised
  • ▼CUSUM transition warning: the axis score has drifted from its recent mean
MOCK
09-06 03:00Z
prev 09-06 02:00Z
GROWTHGROWTH: NEUTRAL → GROWTH ACCELERATIONstate change
  • ▲spx_mom_480 contributes +0.60 (weight +0.3) toward growth acceleration
  • ▲copper_gold_mom_480 contributes +0.22 (weight +0.5) toward growth acceleration
  • ▲growth acceleration is the leading label (score 0.63)
MOCK
09-05 02:00Z
prev 09-05 01:00Z
USDUSD: USD STRENGTHENING → NEUTRALstate change
  • ▲neutral is the leading label (score 0.54)
  • ▼usd_mom_480 contributes +0.51, pulling toward usd strengthening
  • ▼usd_mom_120 contributes -0.37, pulling toward usd weakening
MOCK
09-04 19:00Z
prev 09-04 18:00Z
VOLATILITYVOLATILITY: CUSUM transition warning raised while VOLATILITY EXPANSIONwarning raised
  • ▼CUSUM transition warning: the axis score has drifted from its recent mean
MOCK
09-04 12:00Z
prev 09-04 11:00Z
VOLATILITYVOLATILITY: model confidence in VOLATILITY EXPANSION rose 0.60 → 0.92 (uncalibrated) (+0.32)confidence shift
  • ▲xasset_log_rv_ratio contributes +0.75 (weight +0.6) toward volatility expansion
  • ▲vix_chg_120 contributes +0.70 (weight +0.4) toward volatility expansion
  • ▲volatility expansion is the leading label (score 0.92)
MOCK
09-03 23:00Z
prev 09-03 22:00Z
CRYPTOCRYPTO: NEUTRAL → CRYPTO DELEVERAGINGstate change
  • ▲eth_btc_mom_480 contributes -0.35 (weight +0.3) toward crypto deleveraging
  • ▲btc_rv_ratio_log contributes -0.19 (weight -0.2) toward crypto deleveraging
  • ▲btc_mom_480 contributes -0.15 (weight +0.5) toward crypto deleveraging
MOCK
09-02 22:00Z
prev 09-02 21:00Z
INFLATIONINFLATION: DISINFLATIONARY → NEUTRALstate change
  • ▲gold_mom_480 contributes -0.35: small, consistent with neutral
  • ▲us10y_chg_480 contributes -0.33: small, consistent with neutral
  • ▲neutral is the leading label (score 0.55)
MOCK
09-02 22:00Z
prev 09-02 21:00Z
MACROMacro regime (derived): DISINFLATIONARY → MIXED / TRANSITIONALmacro change
  • ▲no macro rule is fully satisfied by the current component states
  • ▼nearest rule RISK-OFF TIGHTENING needs RISK in risk off; it is neutral
MOCK